Key Trends in Healthcare for 2020 and Beyond

Key Trends in Healthcare for 2020 and Beyond

By F. Randy Vogenberg, PhD, and John E. Santilli, MBA

Dr. F. Randy Vogenberg is Principal, Institute for Integrated Healthcare, and Board Chair, Employer-Provider Interface Council, Greenville, SC; John E. Santilli is President, Access Market Intelligence, LLC, Trumbull, CT.

This article will differ from our past articles published from 2016-2019 on key trends in healthcare in part as a result of the upcoming presidential election. The market landscape has begun to change since 2016 in the commercial and government sectors of the healthcare ecosystem.

Factors contributing to the progress to date have been White House policy changes along with Congressional inaction; administrative agency streamlining, downsizing, and outsourcing; and the emergence of state-level action in place of federal action on a number of key economic sectors related to, or including, healthcare.

Therefore, this article takes a top-level look at the key themes of market dynamic (i.e., commercial), state- and federal (i.e., government)-level trends as they affect healthcare trends by integrating cost, quality, and access to care. Some of these trends have been underway for some time but have not been very visible.

The expectation is that 2020 could create a tipping point for key economic sectors that will emerge more visibly should President Trump get re-elected. Even without that election outcome, some trends are likely to sustain themselves through grassroots public support on healthcare.

Table of Contents

Market Trends

• Downside Risk Arrangements
• Out-of-Pocket Costs
• More HSA & HDHP Plans
• Interest in value based contracts

State and Federal

• Rising pension & healthcare costs for retirees
• Escalating Medicaid costs
• Rising correctional healthcare costs
• Deteriorating social determinants of health
• Federal Trends Focus on Market Administration and Government Programs

Quality

• Quality Measures

Conclusion

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